The only tool of survival of Ukraine is and will be its Armed Forces and, in general, the military component

Ivan Sichen

A year since Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine is the right moment to summarize what happened during the mentioned period. This is important in terms of a proper understanding of Russia’s goals and capabilities for their implementation, as well as identifying its further plans. However, a detailed analysis of the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has already been conducted in the article, which is published in our journal “BINTEL”. So let’s focus on the conclusions that can be drawn and lessons that we can learn from the situation related to the Russian invasion. Such conclusions and lessons complement each other in some way, as do the materials that have been published on our site. However, they have their own specificity, which requires their separate analysis.

As we have already written in previous materials, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has completely changed the world. Most of the leading states united around the case of assisting Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia, as well as building a new world system that would eliminate the possibility of using weapons to resolve problems in international relations.

The support of foreign partners of Ukraine is extremely important for our country and allow us to achieve strategic results. For example, Western weapons helped Ukraine withstand Russia, cause significant losses to its armed forces and liberate some of the Ukrainian territories. Currently, the new full-scale offensive of the Russian troops in the Donbas is actually disrupted.

The same can be said of financial and economic assistance to Ukraine by the whole civilized world. Since the beginning of the war, this made it possible to stabilize the Ukrainian economy, restore its positive development, and allowed to pay salaries to employees of the budget sphere and pensions.

The western sanctions on Russia did not immediately provide the full and expected effect. But a year later, Russia feels their effect. And it will feel more and more, until the Russian Federation ends the war against Ukraine or disintegrates as a state.

The process of forming mechanisms for prosecution of Russian war criminals has begun, which is one of the steps towards creating a new collective security system. It takes time to make it really effective. But we move in the right direction, to victory. The manifestation of this was the condemnation of Moscow’s actions by the majority of members of the UN General Assembly.

I repeat: it’s not so easy. The world is extremely complicated, and the course of international processes cannot be predicted with a high level of likelihood, sufficient to make adequate decisions. Which was demonstrated by the full-scale attack of Russia on Ukraine, which was expected only in the Donbas, but spilled over to other areas. However, the first year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine allows us to draw a number of conclusions and learn certain lessons that will need to be taken into account in the foreign and internal policy of our country. This will allow us to resist our enemies more effectively and avoid steps that can have negative consequences for us. Basically, such conclusions and lessons are quite terrible, related to blood and deaths. But they are quite instructive in content. Let’s look at them in more detail.

Firstly, today the construction of a world, single and just for everybody, is fundamentally impossible. And so it will be in the nearest future. World equality and brotherhood are utopian ideas. They are preached by politicians (persons) who have nothing to do with reality. Or they are PR-elements of PR-campaigns of individual organizations and countries seeking to receive certain benefits.

There will continue to be totalitarian countries and global ambitions, transnational corporations and international criminal organizations, etc. in the world, which will try to realize their interests at the expense of others, including by military means.

The struggle between the leading states for world leadership will remain the same disaster and source of armed conflicts and wars, which will involve other countries.

Secondly, no international organization with advisory rights without real levers will be able to restrain or stop the aggressor. Yes, neither the UN nor the OSCE nor any other such institutions played any role in the termination of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Especially in the face of acute contradictions between Russia/China, on the one hand, and other members of the UN Security Council — on the other.

Thirdly, altruism in international relations never existed, does not exist and will never exist. The assistance of one country or coalition of countries to another always has a mercantile basis. It can have different goals, including: expanding its own areas of influence; strengthening capabilities in counteracting opponents; preventing the spread of the consequences of natural disasters, catastrophes and conflicts to the national territory; improving its own international image; obtaining free access to the resources, industry and infrastructure of partners.

All this is fully inherent in the current situation around Russia’s war against Ukraine. We have already partially raised this topic, but I will do it again to illustrate this lesson.

For example, Ukraine is seen by of Europe and the United States as a “bastion fortress” in restraining Russia. This is the main reason that the West helps Ukraine, with supplies of weapons and military equipment included. Besides, with the hands of Ukrainians are actually being destroyed the Armed Forces of Russia, which were considered the “second army of the world”. It is known that the leading mechanism of coordination of international efforts for the transfer of weapons to Ukraine is the Ramstein Group — the first structure of this kind.

Currently, due to the losses on the fronts in Ukraine, Russia is unable to resist NATO during conventional conflict. The only thing it relies on is its nuclear weapons. One confirmation of this was Russia’s suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty.

Western countries are also quite careful about the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. Again, out of purely mercantile thoughts. On the one hand, they increase the volume of such supplies, giving us more powerful and long-range weapons. But on the other hand, they delay with supplying to Ukraine tactical aviation and missiles capable of engaging on the rear objects of Russia in its territory.

In turn, the PRC uses Russia as a tool that creates problems for the USA and the EU — its geopolitical rivals. At the same time, China is known to be interested in Russian energy carriers and other minerals, forests (wood) and agricultural lands. Currently, manipulating political support and in some way, economic assistance to Russia, the leadership of the PRC has successfully implemented the above-mentioned plans.

At this, the pragmatism of the People’s Republic of China has a deeper meaning. For example, despite the relations of strategic partnership with Russia, the leadership of the PRC is not in a hurry to give it weapons (except for certain dual-use goods), so as not to complicate relations with the USA and Europe as its main trading and economic partners.

Fourthly, none, even the most powerful state can exist on its own in the modern world. The reason is the deepening of the international division of labor and resources, which began in the 18^th–19^th centuries and are becoming irreversible. Moreover, they are supplemented with globalization of the world, in which most of the countries are part of the global trade and economic system. Of course, each of them contributes to such a system, but at the same time begins to critically depend on others. And this situation, in fact, is “unilateral” in nature. In general, the global trade and economic system can maintain its viability even after one or more members (including Russia, which considers itself a world supplier of energy) are excluded from it. But none of these members can exist on its own, at least at a relatively civilized level.

Fifthly, similarly, no state, with the powerful nuclear and missile potential included, can win the war with relatively equal opponents, so it needs partners and allies. At present, even a country such as Russia, which has been preparing for the war for many years, has actually spent its stocks of missiles, UAVs and artillery shells, and suffered significant losses in heavy armors, which forces it to switch the economy to military rails, to seek the opportunity to buy the needed ammunition and technical means.

Sixthly, the use of new weapons and military equipment, including reconnaissance UAVs, high-precision and long-range missile and artillery systems, automated control and communication systems, has completely changed the nature of the modern war. From now on, the superiority of numbers of armed force, even significant, does not guarantee victory. This is what demonstrates the first stage of the Russian-Ukrainian War, when Russia had to retreat from part of the Ukrainian territories and also declare partial mobilization. At the same time, Russia’s use of operative-tactical missiles of different types and UAVs had no “deadly” consequences for Ukraine either in military or economic aspect.

However, the enemy should not be underestimated. Russia managed to mobilize more than 300,000 people, gather additional military equipment and resume active offensive in the Donbas and partly in the south of Ukraine. Moreover, Moscow learns from its mistakes, takes over our tactics. Although basically the tactics of its actions remains unchanged, including attempts to “squeeze” the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a large military force.

Seventhly, V. Putin will never agree to the termination of the war against Ukraine. After all, the war is sacred for him, it is a sort of the meaning of his existence. Moreover, the Kremlin will not be limited to the conquest of only the Donbas and laying the land corridor to Crimea. It seeks to capture the whole of Ukraine to destroy it as an independent state. Today, this is already openly declared by the Russian leadership. And replaces the propaganda theses about the “liberation of Ukraine from the Nazis”, its “demilitarization”. To achieve his goals, V. Putin will not spare human, financial or material resources. Even, if their loss threatens the very existence of Russia.

For its part, Ukraine will never agree to compromises in favor of Russia. Because such a step would mean the loss of our statehood. Therefore, Ukraine will rely on both its own resources and the assistance of partners who promise to never leave it on its own in confrontation with Russia. Therefore, the war between Russia and Ukraine will have a complex and long-term nature, without any hope of political compromises. The parties simply have no grounds for them. Moreover, due to the fact what Russia has done in Ukraine, it has become our main enemy forever.

Therefore, no international security guarantees to Ukraine will be valid. The only tool of survival of Ukraine is and will be its Armed Forces and, in general, the military component. This is the main lesson of Russia’s war against Ukraine. We hope that we will still get qualitatively new types of Western weapons (including tanks, SAMs, aircrafts and long-range missiles) in time, which will make it possible to finally break the course of war.